The last few weeks have been a lot. Mortgage rates climbed seven weeks in a row, the headlines got louder, and if you're thinking about buying or selling in the OKC housing market this fall, you're probably wondering what it all means for you.
So let's skip the noise and look at the actual numbers heading into the fourth quarter: what's happening with rates, what's happening with inventory, and what to do about it whether you're buying, selling, or both.
Mortgage rates: the big story of the fall
Freddie Mac's weekly survey put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.40% for the week of October 8, 2026 (Freddie Mac PMMS). That was the seventh straight weekly increase, and it's the highest weekly average since November 2023.
For perspective, here's how quickly it moved:
February 26, 2026: 5.98%, the low point of the year so far
September 3, 2026: 6.71%
October 8, 2026: 7.40%
One year earlier (October 9, 2025): 6.30%
Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, 30-year fixed, weekly averages.
What that means for a monthly payment
Here's a simple illustration. Take a $266,475 home (that's the August 2026 statewide median sales price from Oklahoma REALTORS®) with 10% down, which leaves a loan of about $239,800.
5.98% (February low): about $1,435
6.30% (a year ago): about $1,484
7.40% (October 8): about $1,661
Illustration only: principal and interest, not taxes, insurance, or mortgage insurance. Your actual rate depends on your credit, loan type, and lender.
That's roughly $226 a month more than the February low, on the exact same house. It's a real number, and it's worth planning around. But it isn't the whole story.
What the Oklahoma data shows
Oklahoma REALTORS® publishes a monthly statewide housing report compiled by RPR® from MLS data (monthly housing data). Here's 2026 so far:
January: Listings: 20,620 · Sales: 3,165 · Median sales price: $254,900 · Months of inventory: 5.43
March: Listings: 24,817 · Sales: 3,755 · Median sales price: $260,000 · Months of inventory: 6.68
May: Listings: 26,196 · Sales: 4,617 · Median sales price: $269,000 · Months of inventory: 6.98
June: Listings: 25,954 · Sales: 4,729 · Median sales price: $263,000 · Months of inventory: 6.89
July: Listings: 26,381 · Sales: 4,214 · Median sales price: $266,990 · Months of inventory: 6.91
August: Listings: 25,967 · Sales: 3,998 · Median sales price: $266,475 · Months of inventory: 6.79
Source: Oklahoma REALTORS® / RPR® monthly housing reports. These are statewide figures, not metro-only. August 2026 is the most recent month published as of this writing.
Compared with August 2025, statewide listings were up 14.2%, sales were down 11.2%, and the median sales price was up 3.6%. Months of inventory sat at 6.79, and Oklahoma REALTORS® treats 6 months as a balanced market.
Put simply: there are more homes to choose from than a year ago, fewer of them are selling each month, and prices have held up anyway. That combination matters a lot more than any single headline.
Your price range is its own market
The statewide average hides the most useful part of the report. Inventory looks very different depending on price:
$125,000 – $249,999: Listings (Aug.): 7,696 · Months of inventory: 5.6
$250,000 – $374,999: Listings (Aug.): 7,184 · Months of inventory: 6.4
$375,000 – $499,999: Listings (Aug.): 3,741 · Months of inventory: 7.8
$500,000 – $624,999: Listings (Aug.): 1,837 · Months of inventory: 9.6
$625,000 – $749,999: Listings (Aug.): 1,175 · Months of inventory: 10.8
$1M – $1.99M: Listings (Aug.): 766 · Months of inventory: 13.9
Source: Oklahoma REALTORS® / RPR® August 2026 report, statewide.
Below $250,000, supply is under the 6-month balanced line. Above $500,000, it's well over it. So a seller with a starter home and a seller with a move-up home are living in two different markets, even if they're on the same side of town.
If you're selling this fall
Price for the buyers who are shopping right now. Higher rates shrink some buyers' budgets. The homes that sell in Q4 are the ones priced off current comparables and pending sales, not off what a neighbor got in the spring. A free home evaluation shows you where your home really sits.
Make condition do some of the work. With more listings to compare, buyers notice which homes feel move-in ready. Our post on whether fall is a good time to sell covers the prep that matters most this time of year.
Think about how you can help with the rate. Some sellers are offering concessions a buyer can put toward closing costs or a rate buydown, instead of cutting the price. It's worth talking through which approach nets you more for your specific home.
Have a plan if you're buying next. If you need to sell and buy at the same time, the timing gets tight when the market is slower. That's exactly what our Guaranteed Sale Program is built for.
If you're buying this fall
More choices can mean more room to negotiate. With listings up and sales down from last year, many buyers have more time to decide and more leverage on price, repairs, and closing costs than they've had in years. That depends heavily on price range, so look at your band in the table above.
Shop your lender, not just your house. Freddie Mac's chief economist, Sam Khater, put it plainly in the October 8 release: shopping around for a mortgage rate and getting multiple quotes "can potentially save them thousands over the loan's lifetime." Compare Loan Estimates from at least two or three lenders on the same day.
Understand your rate lock. A rate lock holds your rate for a set period while your loan is processed. The CFPB explains that locks have an expiration date and terms that vary by lender, so ask how long yours lasts, what happens if closing is delayed, and whether there's a fee.
Run your own numbers. Our mortgage calculator lets you test different prices and rates, and getting pre-approved tells you what a lender will actually approve before you fall in love with a house.
Should you wait for rates to come down?
Nobody can promise where rates go next, including us. What we can tell you is that waiting has trade-offs on both sides. If rates fall, more buyers come back and competition picks up. If they don't, you've lost months.
The better question is whether the move makes sense for your life and your budget today. If it does, there are ways to make the numbers work. If it doesn't, a clear plan for spring is a perfectly good answer too.
Let's look at your numbers
Every market report is an average, and you're not an average. Wally and Cindy Kerr have been helping Oklahoma families through every kind of market since 1987, and homes listed with the Kerr Team have sold for an average of 4.1% more than homes listed with other agents, based on MLS data (individual results vary).
Whether you're buying, selling, or just trying to decide, browse our seller resources and buyer resources, or call the Kerr Team at (405) 330-3000. We'll walk you through what this market means for your price range and your plans.
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Call or text us at 405-330-3000 (OKC Metro) or 918-999-6000 (Tulsa Metro) with the address of your home. You'll answer a few questions about your home, and an appointment will be set with one of our experts to meet you at your home and get you a Guaranteed Sale Price.
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Absolutely! Think of the Guaranteed Sale Program as an insurance policy, so you never end up with two mortgage payments.
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One of our experts will come to look at your home before a price is agreed upon. The price will be agreed upon upfront, and won't change.
